The Illusion of Stories
Imagine you are considering buying a new car and check Consumer Reports to find a highly reliable choice. But then you go to a party and find a friend bought the very same vehicle and complains he takes it to the repair shop often. He says, "nothing but trouble."
Will you buy that car?
If you’re like most people, you won't. The account from your friend will have more bearing on your decision than the statistics. But should it? Your friend is a sample of one, while the Consumer Reports data are based on large numbers of vehicles. There is variance in everything, and even the best-made cars have an occasional "lemon." It could be that your friend got one of these rare lemons, or maybe he or she hasn’t kept up with the recommended maintenance.
The point is, by not buying the car you'd be basing your decision on one person’s narrative, not reliable statistical data. But excluding the story from your decision is difficult.
Our fondness for stories is hardwired in us. In the history of humankind, only recently have we been able to record and store accessible facts for the knowledge we need. Prior to such capabilities, we passed our history and knowledge from generation to generation by telling stories.
We all love a good story. We have an evolved penchant for paying close attention to them.[ii] But, our preference for stories or anecdotal evidence over facts and figures can be a problem. It intertwines with our "ease to call to mind" issue. Stories are much easier to remember than statistics.
See the book for more instances on how stories unduly influence our perspectives on such things as crime, violence, and public policy.
[ii] Thomas Kida, Don't Believe Everything You Think, 17.